The first reason is a big increase in voter enthusiasm for Harris, according to Gallup. Their new data gives the Dems a 10-point advantage over the Republicans. Since Harris replaced Biden some 69 percent of all voters now show more enthusiasm than Gallup has ever reported. The caveats here are 1) it’s still a poll, and you know how I feel about that; and 2) voter enthusiasm is not always a good predictor of election outcomes.
We also know that the media loves a horse race despite the paucity of evidence. But one can’t deny that things are looking good for Harris. With his recent repulsive remarks Trump is committing election suicide and offending more and more women. He will protect them, he says, whether they “like it or not.” He envisions a firing squad to shoot Liz Cheney in the face. Yesterday he simulates fellatio with a microphone. He doesn’t realize that the firing squad will soon be turning on him.
Justin Brown writes in Politico that if it took 8 years to capture Trump’s political support (and there is still doubt about that) “is 100 days enough to accurately poll potential Vice President Kamala Harris voters?” A lot of potential Harris voters simply aren’t being captured. Where are the Nikki Haley voters going to go? Some “36 percent [are] indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.” How will the moderate Republicans vote? The Uncommitted Leftist Democrats? “These voters are not necessarily ‘shy’ with their support for Harris, instead they are overlooked by current polling methods.”
Our favorite old curmudgeon James Carville offered three reasons why Harris will win. 1) Trump is a repeat loser; 2) money matters, and Harris has a horde; and, finally, 3) it’s his gut feeling. Americans, he says, are not as divided as they seem. Besides, “Donald Trump is stone-ass nuts.”
David Plouffe, Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, recently wrote that late-deciding voters are “breaking by double digits” for Kamala Harris, with “the remaining undecideds looking more friendly” to her than Donald Trump.
So the signs in the horoscope are favorable. We hope they are not pie in the sky.